A broad market index tracking data since 1926 in the US shows that stocks have generally delivered strong returns over one-year, three-year, and five-year periods following steep declines.
Periods in which cumulative return from peak is –10%, –15%, or –20% or lower and a recovery of 10%, 15%, or 20% from trough has not yet occurred are considered downturns. For the 10% threshold, there are 3,442 observations for 1-year look ahead, 3,396 observations for 3-year look ahead, and 3,345 observations for 5-year look ahead. For the 15% threshold, there are 3,175 observations for 1-year look ahead, 3,167 observations for 3-year look ahead, and 3,166 observations for 5-year look ahead. For the 20% threshold, there are 2,561 observations for 1-year look ahead, 2,560 observations for 3-year look ahead, and 2,560 observations for 5-year look ahead. One-year, 3-year, and 5-year periods are overlapping periods. The bar chart shows the average returns for the 1-, 3-, and 5-year periods following market declines. Data provided by Fama/French, available at http://mba.tuck.dartmouth.edu/pages/faculty/ken.french/data_library.html.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Eugene Fama and Ken French are members of the Board of Directors of the general partner of, and provide consulting services to, Dimensional Fund Advisors LP. Short-term performance results should be considered in connection with longer-term performance results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio.
Investing risks include loss of principal and fluctuating value. There is no guarantee an investment strategy will be successful.
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